Daily ozone forecasting in an urban area using meteorological and pollution data
Papanastasiou, D.K. , Melas, D.
[περίληψη] The objective of this paper is to develop and test an analytical model, relating the daily maximum hourly (DMH) values of ozone concentration with various meteorological and pollution variables. The goal is to provide quantitative 24-hours forecasts of maximum ozone concentration, based on meteorological parameter information. The meteorological variables mat are used in the present study include near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. The analytical model also incorporates the persistency in ozone levels and includes an index for the annual variation of ozone concentration. A multiple linear regression model (MLRA) is developed to establish the relationship between the aforementioned parameters and peak ozone levels, and to forecast ground level ozone concentrations. The pollution and meteorological data were collected by the air quality monitoring station that is operating in the urban area of Volos, a medium-sized coastal city in central Greece, during the period 2001 - 2003. The agreement between observed and predicted DMH values of ozone concentration is very good, the correlation coefficient (R) being ∼0.93. Moreover, the calculated statistical indexes reveal that the model is capable of predicting accurately the exceedances of a certain ozone level.
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